Neil’s Note: I sent an e-mail out to my Reform Party volunteers a few hours ago, and later I realized this document might be worth preserving. Whatever happens tomorrow.
For the avoidance of doubt: “Graham” is our candidate, “Doug” is the supporter whose e-mail prompted me to write this.
Hi all,
I am taking this opportunity to issue some final thoughts, as campaign manager, to our volunteers’ group about tomorrow.
Doug is absolutely right about the Tories’ assumption that their only “opposition” to a government has to be in parliament. That assumption is totally wrong.
And yes, the movement which we need to build will be far wider than just Reform UK. I think of Reform as the political wing of the new movement. Together (togetherdeclaration.org) looks to be in pole position to be our civil liberties wing. The TaxPayers’ Alliance is already moving in the direction of making themselves into an “unofficial opposition” on taxes and economic matters. There is a need for a fourth wing, too, which I think of as an ethical and ideas wing – getting out to people ideas of what government ought to be doing and how it ought to behave, so they can compare it with what it actually is doing and how it actually is behaving. There may even be more.
But the major problem we have is that to do all this will need money. It will need people, eventually many people, working full-time, and they have to be paid. To get money, we need to attract more supporters who have financial resources, and enough belief in what we want to do to use those resources to help us do it.
This time round, we have been doing everything with unpaid volunteers. I’m amazed by how much we’ve done with almost zero resources! And thank you all for your huge contributions to that effort. Many of you have gone way beyond any reasonable “call of duty.”
In contrast, the Lib Dems have been sending out multiple waves of leaflets by post. And Jeremy Hunt, I’ve heard, has spent £100K of his own money on publicity in the last phase of the campaign. I have had another letter, claiming to be from a “Sue W” in Milford, that appears to be a last ditch effort to activate the “Jeremy factor.” It isn’t as bad as the CCHQ one, and I don’t propose to spend time (even after the election) on taking it apart. But it does have about it an air of desperation.
I have not applied any “science” to this, it is only an educated guess, but I reckon we have about a 50 per cent chance of taking away enough votes from Hunt to let the Lib Dem through. That I regard as our “bronze medal.” The silver medal would be to reflect the national polling figures, and push Hunt down to third place. That would drive a nail labelled “Godalming and Ash” hard into the Tories’ coffin. The gold medal, of getting Graham in parliament, is a really outside chance; I’d guess it’s about the same chance as Foinavon winning the 1967 Grand National. (But it happened!)
Bear in mind, though, that a lot of our potential support is not visible to the pollsters, because they would refuse to take part in any poll. They are people the same position as I was before the Brexit party was formed. Totally pissed off with politics and all the mainstream parties, they have only two choices: vote for us, or don’t vote at all. Tomorrow will be the first time I have voted in a general election since 1987!
For those (unfortunately, few) of us who will be doing “teller duty” tomorrow, please read the “TelIers Guidance” PDF Graham sent out yesterday. I am advised that the most productive times are likely to be 8-10am and 5-9pm. I’d guess there might be a slightly busier period around lunch time, too. This is my own opinion only, but I see our tellers’ objective on this occasion as being to make clear to people coming in to the polling station that we exist, and have a candidate in this election. If I am engaged in a polite conversation by those coming in or out, I’ll respond, but I don’t plan to initiate any conversations or demand any information. Oh, and I’ll take a chair with me.
I think that’s about all I need to say today. So enjoy tomorrow, and let’s hope that, at the very least, tomorrow will be Jeremy Hunt’s last day in politics.
Cheers, Neil
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In 30 minutes I will be casting my eighth general election vote and it will be for None of the Above.
Some of the candidates in my constituency seem capable enough and very knowledgeable, but even in those cases, I cannot support the parties they have attached themselves to.
Labour – Authoritarian morons, hate white people. Let’s hate them back. Candidate seems OK, but typical public sector Labour type who you just know, if she becomes our MP, won’t do much for the area but will spend her weekends from Westminster posing for the local newspaper.
Conservatives – I have never voted Tory in my life. I wouldn’t vote Tory if you offered to pay me. I want the Labour Party to collapse, but the Tories must go first: “business before pleasure”.
Reform UK – The candidate seems OK and might do something for the constituency because she does seem to genuinely care for the local area, but I cannot bring myself to vote for Reform. A vote for Reform UK means a vote for neo-liberalism. More to the point, a vote for Reform UK in my constituency will probably mean we have a Labour MP as the race is very tight between the two main parties according to local polling. I don’t want that to happen.
SDP – This would be the obvious choice for me, but on careful reflection, I would rather spoil my ballot paper, as I think that sends a more powerful message.
Yorkshire Party – I have already given my four reasons for disliking this party. First, I object to any sort of devolution that does not involve local government. Single devolution schemes are designed to undermine the unitary state and parliamentary democracy and will eventually lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom. Second, this party is insufferably politically-correct and its candidates come across as – mostly – your typical white middle-class/chattering classes types living in an affluent bubble. Third, devolution to a regional political elite in Wakefield would be just as bad as the present overly-centralised arrangements. Better to reform local government, preferably an updated version of the pre-1974 system. This uses existing structures and would involve less expense. Fourth, as much as I am a Yorkshireman, I find something faintly comical about a Parliament for Yorkshire. I have joked around in the past about Independence for Yorkshire, but that was just meant in jest. Yorkshire has a distinctive people and culture, but it is not a demos. It is a county of England. I’m English and British. Let’s be serious and restore unitary government at Westminster but allow devolution to local authorities, which could over generations evolve slowly into new and interesting geopolitical arrangements by broad consensus.
Green Party – Nutters. Completely out of touch with ordinary people. Not wishing to offend, but the candidate is a typical female middle-class Remainer type. I haven’t met her or seen her speak but I only need to look at her photograph to see that she would grate on my nerves. The candidate is also not local, which is not in itself always a bad thing, but in this case I don’t think the Greens must expect or care anything from this constituency.
Lib Dems – Ditto.
Independent candidate – local businessman and a nice person, but I would rather spoil my ballot paper.
Thanks, Tom. You make some very perspicacious points here.
Labour – Couldn’t agree more. Where I am, they seem to be taking care to look not as far left as the Lib Dems. But that doesn’t tell us anything about their actual plans.
Tory – Agree even more strongly! My two primary motivations in supporting Reform, and doing what I have done as campaign manager, are: (1) I can’t stand Jeremy Hunt, and want him out on his ass. And taking enough of his votes away to let the Lib Dem through is a way to do this. (2) The Tory party has totally lost all respect for the people, all sanity and all honesty. It has got to go. And right now is a good time to bring it down to a point from which it can never recover. Strike while the iron is hot!
Reform – see above. This was the first time I have voted in a UK election in 37 years! But why would your voting Reform rather than NOTA or SDP have made any difference to what you suggest is a straight run between Labour and Tories?
SDP – Indeed they would look to be your No. 1 choice, from what I know of you and them. But it’s fine to go NOTA, that’s where I was for 37 years.
Yorkshire Party – I’m eager to “undermine the unitary state,” but I agree that doing it on a county by county basis is not a good way to go.
Greens – Spot on, Tom. We have the same kind of candidate here. Parachuted in from Bethnal Green or some such place. But very few here will vote for her, or Labour, because they all vote tactically for the Lib Dems.
Lib Dems – Yes. They are neither liberal nor democratic. And they think money grows on trees. But if we can use them to get rid of Hunt, that’s good. Next time round will be another matter.
We don’t have an Independent, but we do have a Women’s Equality Party candidate. At least she is probably able to label herself with the right pronoun!
Neil, in my constituency Reform have split the Tory vote, so anything done to assist or encourage Reform must lead indirectly to a Labour MP, which I don’t want. It is true that my own vote would have made no direct difference as I don’t vote Tory anyway, but I don’t want to have a hand in it.
Another factor in it is that I couldn’t bring myself to vote for a party led by Nigel Farage. His politics are economically liberal and thatcherite. What I think Britain needs is a figurehead from the Right who is more in tune with the country and people’s struggles and problems. Farage is tolerated by the mainstream media because he is in sync with what they think, he just brands it in a way that seems popular.
Now the result for my constituency is in, it was a three horse race, with the Labour, Tory and Reform votes very close, but with Reform about a thousand votes behind and the other two on level pegging. Possibly the Reform candidate could have won here with a bit more help, a few more helping hands on the ground, and part of me does regret my own decision and I wonder if I should have pitched in and helped them locally. But it’s done now. I just find something fundamentally objectionable about Farage: which, for me, is nothing to do with the views that the media dislike, rather it’s his association with the very policies that brought the country to this state. Why should I support such people?
The Tories have retained this seat. While I don’t like that outcome, it’s preferable to a Labour MP. Right now I am watching that horrible man, Starmer, now Prime Minister-designate, giving a gloating speech in his nasally voice. They are going to be insufferable. A local Labour MP into the bargain would have made it still worse.
Tom, what is wrong with economic liberalism? What is wrong with allowing small businesses, who meet the needs of their market, to thrive and grow?
The “very policies that brought the country to this state” were and are not economically liberal. They are based on giving big companies advantages over small ones. That is a major cause of “people’s struggles and problems.” As a victim of IR35, I know that personally.