by Michael Wood
We now have the Russian position on the possible conclusion of the Ukraine war, laid out clearly before the pointless “international meeting in Switzerland” even gets going.
President Vladimir Putin has called for the creation of new collective security systems in Eurasia and the ousting of the bases of external powers (read US bases such as Diego Garcia?) from the territory of Eurasia.
Euro-Atlanticism in its previous form, according to him, is collapsing, Europe is completely dependent on the United States and is not capable of independent policy, and the United States’ attempts to maintain its imperial status will not lead to success. The United States will not be able to return to the times of unlimited hegemony, the world has already changed – it has moved on.
President Putin stated:
“Ukrainian troops must be COMPLETELY withdrawn from all territories of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Luhansk People’s Republic, the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. Then negotiations are possible”
“And here are the basic conditions for starting negotiations. Nobody forgets about Kherson, Zaporozhye, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. For the Russian Federation, these are Russian cities by default.”
“Today we are making another real peace proposal , but if the West and Kiev refuse, it is their responsibility for the bloodshed”
Russia’s conditions for concluding peace, (not just freezing the conflict.)
- Ukrainian troops must be completely withdrawn from the territory of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions; The status of regions must be fixed in international treaties.
- Ukraine’s commitment not to join NATO;
- Neutral, non-aligned, nuclear-free status of Ukraine.
- Demilitarisation based on the Istanbul Agreements.
- Protection of the rights of Russians resident in Ukraine.
If these conditions are rejected, responsibility for further bloodshed will lie with the West. If they are not accepted, the conditions will be different in the future.
The position is now clear. NATO has quietly advised Ukraine to fortify the west bank of the Dneiper river, because they think that if no peace agreement is signed soon, that is where the new frontier will be. The conditions under which Russia will negotiate are laid out, it is up to the Europeans and Ukraine to respond, leaving the USA out of the discussion.
Personally I think that the Ukraine is close to another revolution and if the Banderites gain control, there will be no negotiation. If there is no new Ukrainian revolution, I doubt that Zelenskyy can agree to such terms. I suspect that the Ukrainians will attempt to fight on through 2025, but that will just mean that they will lose more territory and run the very real risk of the collapse of their army. If that happens, then the Dneiper will indeed be the new frontier.
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Yes, but Putin wants to settle for those 4 provinces. This is a minimalist demand. There are 4 more Russian-speaking provinces that he is not asking for: Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Nikolayev and Odessa. As Kharkov is only 20 miles from Russia and is seen as the capital of the Ukrainian Russian-speakers, it would be a shame not to get it. Odessa, a total jewel on the Black Sea – a beautiful city with classical architecture built according to Catherine the Great’s Greek project idea, of recreating the ancient Greek civilisation there – would, according to Putin, be left in the Ukraine – which would be a shame too.
Figures from the 1897 Czarist census of Odessa were divided by language spoken: 49.1% Russian, 30.8% Jewish (it didn’t specify, but this is mainly Yiddish, maybe some Hebrew) and 9.4% Ukrainian (see https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9D%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5_%D0%9E%D0%B4%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%81%D1%8B) . This city that has never been Ukrainian-speaking has ended up in the Ukraine owing to Lenin’s desire to control the Ukrainian Soviet Republic by assigning large Russian-speaking territories to it. The Jewish population of course has dwindled sharply owing to Auschwitz (with the Ukrainian nationalists assisting the SS in rounding up Jews in the Ukraine) and emigration and so little Yiddish is spoken there today. To turn this into a Ukrainian-speaking city, which is what Ukrainian policy aims to do, is a total human-rights abuse.