There is a point at which intellectual error shades into absurdity—and from absurdity into farce. Nigel Green of deVere Group has now completed that journey. Just two months ago, he accused the Bank of England of “hesitation” for not cutting interest rates enough in the face of global uncertainty. One month later, when inflation surprised on the upside, he blamed the Bank for moving too soon. Now, in his latest dispatch of confusion, he urges a further cut in August despite inflation still rising. It is difficult to parody such incoherence. If the Bank acts, it is wrong. If it delays, it is paralysed. If inflation rises, the answer is a cut. If inflation falls, the answer is—naturally—a cut.

What unites all these contradictory positions is a single, profoundly stupid idea: that central banks should “support growth” by managing interest rates as if they were a thermostat, or a Bunsen burner under a beaker. This is not economics. It is technocratic alchemy. And the only thing it produces is disaster.

The Function of Interest Rates: A Lesson in Basic Economics

Let us begin with a point so elementary it should not require repetition: interest rates are not a policy tool. They are a price—the price of credit. And like all prices in a functioning market, they serve a specific purpose. They ration scarce resources (in this case, real savings) and allocate them to those investments that are judged most viable. Interest rates match the supply of genuine savings to the demand for capital. To manipulate them for political ends is to destroy the coordination mechanism that underpins all productive activity.

The Austrian school—Mises, Hayek, Rothbard—understood this. They knew that artificially low interest rates, imposed by central banks to stimulate demand, do not create real savings. They only create the illusion of abundance. Entrepreneurs misread these false signals and embark on projects they cannot complete. Consumers take on debt they cannot service. And when reality reasserts itself—when rates rise or inflation explodes—those investments collapse in a wave of bankruptcies. The result is the boom-bust cycle, as predictable as it is avoidable.

And yet here is Mr Green, urging the Bank of England to “cut rates despite inflation,” to “offer timely support,” and to restore “economic momentum.” What is this but a call for another credit bubble?

Inflation is Not a Mystery—It’s a Policy

The latest figures show headline inflation at 3.6% and core inflation at 3.7%. These are not flukes or statistical aberrations. They are the result of years of cheap money, deficit financing, and political cowardice. And they are precisely the sort of consequences Austrian economists have been warning about since The Theory of Money and Credit was published in 1912.

What makes Green’s latest statement so galling is his refusal to engage with these facts. He speaks as if inflation is a mere data point to be brushed aside. “One slightly hotter-than-expected reading,” he says, should not deter the Bank. As if inflation were a passing cloud on an otherwise bright horizon.

But inflation is not just a matter of optics. It destroys capital, punishes savers, distorts investment, and accelerates social decay. It is a tax without legislation, a theft without fingerprints. And it is always the product of deliberate policy—specifically, the policy that Green is advocating.

To call for rate cuts when inflation is rising is to double down on the very policies that caused the problem. It is like urging a man to drink more poison because he hasn’t yet collapsed. And it is economically illiterate.

“Support for Growth”: The Last Refuge of Scoundrels

Nigel Green invokes the usual tired phrases: “support growth,” “steady the ship,” “timely and targeted relief.” But none of these slogans means anything without reference to real capital formation. You cannot consume what you have not produced. You cannot invest what has not been saved. You cannot build long-term prosperity on a foundation of monetary smoke.

And you certainly cannot revive growth by continuing to suppress interest rates below their natural level. All this does is encourage malinvestment and delay liquidation of past errors. The very “slump” that Green wants to avoid is in fact the necessary correction. It is how the market re-establishes order after the chaos of monetary manipulation.

To fear this correction is to demand that the malinvestments of the past be allowed to fester. To delay it is to guarantee that the eventual bust will be worse. That is the lesson of every major financial crisis from the 1920s to 2008. But apparently, no one at deVere Group was paying attention.

The Currency as Collateral Damage

Green also throws in a digression about the strength of the pound, arguing that a “more competitive currency” would help exports and reduce imported inflation. This is the sort of half-formed thought that only a currency speculator could love. It assumes that devaluation is a policy lever to be pulled whenever domestic producers complain.

In reality, a strong currency is a sign of confidence. It reflects sound governance, fiscal restraint, and stable monetary policy. Weakening the currency to boost exports is the equivalent of breaking your own kneecaps to win a limping race. It might help a few politically connected exporters, but it makes everyone else poorer.

And the irony? Inflation is imported precisely because the pound is weak. You can’t have it both ways. If you cut rates and debase the currency, you invite further inflation—and then complain when it arrives. This is the incoherence at the heart of Green’s worldview.

The Cult of the Central Bank

This is not an isolated case. The cult of the central bank is now the central theology of the modern managerial state. It insists that all economic problems are technical—never moral, never structural. It insists that there is always a correct rate, a correct curve, a correct target that will deliver full employment, low inflation, and growth.

It is false. And it is destructive.

The real source of prosperity is not demand management but capital accumulation. That means thrift, savings, investment, and production. It means stable institutions, low taxes, and predictable legal rules. Above all, it means hard money—money that cannot be printed at whim to suit the panic of consultants and investment fund managers.

Until we restore these principles, there will be no recovery. Only more debt, more bubbles, more inflation, and more angry press releases from men who have profited handsomely from the very policies they now claim to regret.

Final Thoughts: Dishonest Advice for a Distorted System

Nigel Green is not stupid. But his statements are. They are the utterances of a man who has spent too long in a world where the price of money is an instrument of marketing, not a measure of reality. His “bold” advice is not bold at all. It is cowardice dressed as action. It is the same advice that was given in 2001, in 2008, in 2020: cut rates, print money, wait for the recovery.

And when the recovery never arrives—when inflation returns, when trust collapses, when savers are ruined and the currency loses half its value—he will move on to his next market prediction, always confident, always wrong, never responsible.

The Release

BoE must cut rates despite hotter-than-expected inflation: deVere CEO

-FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE-

July 16 2025

The Bank of England should press ahead with cutting interest rates next month – despite a surprise uptick in inflation – says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management organisations.

UK headline inflation rose to 3.6% in June, data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Wednesday, ahead of the 3.4% expected by economists and unchanged from the previous month.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also ticked higher to 3.7% from 3.5% in May.

However, the chief executive of deVere Group, Nigel Green, says the marginal overshoot is no reason for the central bank to delay a rate cut in August – which markets widely expect and which he believes would be a “bold and correct call.”

“There’s no question the latest inflation data will spark some jitters,” he says.

“But one slightly hotter-than-expected reading should not knock the Bank off course. A cut next month is still warranted – and, frankly, necessary.”

He continues: “Inflation has fallen considerably from its double-digit peak. What we’re seeing now is the bumpy endgame. The disinflationary trend remains intact, but it was never going to be perfectly smooth.”

Nigel Green notes that UK wage growth is softening, job vacancies are falling, and the broader economy remains under pressure from the Bank’s tight policy stance over the past two years.

“The real risk now is overkill,” he warns. “With inflation moving in the right direction and the labour market starting to weaken, holding rates too high for too long could do unnecessary damage.”

The deVere CEO argues that the Bank of England is in a different position to the US Federal Reserve, where services inflation remains stickier and the economy is running hotter.

“The UK is not the US. Britain’s economy is more fragile, and our inflation outlook more benign. The BoE has room to move and should take it.”

His comments come just days after BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said rates were “on a downward path” and hinted the Bank would be prepared to move more decisively if labour market slack increases.

Markets are still pricing in a 25-basis point rate cut at the Monetary Policy Committee’s 6 August meeting, which would bring the base rate down from its current 4.25%.

Nigel Green says a summer rate cut would offer “timely and targeted support” to households and businesses at a point when economic momentum risks stalling.

“Too many consumers are still feeling the aftershocks of the cost-of-living crisis,” he says. “Mortgage holders are under pressure, and confidence remains fragile. A well-judged rate cut would help to steady the ship.”

He adds that delaying action until inflation drops below 2% could “trap the economy in a prolonged slump.”

“Central banks are meant to look forward, not react to each data print. Waiting for perfect numbers is a mistake. The time to act is when the broad conditions warrant it – and they do.”

The deVere CEO also believes a rate cut would help restore balance to the pound, which has remained relatively strong this year, making UK exports less competitive.

“The Bank doesn’t target sterling, but it can’t ignore it either. A more competitive currency would help growth at the margins and ease some imported inflation,” he says.

With the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada already cutting, and the Fed preparing the ground for a move, Nigel Green says the Bank of England risks being “the laggard” unless it shows leadership.

“Caution has its place, but not when it leads to paralysis,” he concludes.

“A rate cut in August would be a clear signal that the Bank is serious about supporting growth, jobs and stability, while staying alert to inflation risks. It’s the right move, at the right time.”